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Navigating Change

Mike Grenville — Sun, 20 Nov 2011 12:30:01 +0000

While change is constant, we are not always clear about how change happens in society and what we can do to bring about the change we want. So where do we start? One way is by adopting new ways of doing things ourselves, “being the change we want to see in the world”. So how about ‘green consumerism‘, changing people’s habits one purchase and one product at a time? This might be akin to evolution which implies slow progressive changes, not noticeable in the short term but evident in the long, some times very, very long term. For the challenges we face, we surely don’t have that much time to play with. While fine in its own terms, one can see that green consumerism just obscures the deeper issues and only tinkers with the status quo.

Sensing the urgency of the times, we question whether this will be enough to persuade enough people to make sufficient changes in time to cope with the pressing energy, climate and economic challenges we face. Won’t just ploughing our own furrow run the risk of being daunted by the slow pace of our change? Indeed looking at the state of play of the main challenges we face, climate change, peak oil and global economics, it would be easy to be dispirited. With climate change we don’t seem to be persuading more people to take action. While a 2007 Harris poll found that 71 percent of Americans believed that the continued burning of fossil fuels would cause the climate to change, that dropped to 51% by 2009, falling to 44% in June 2011. With the economy, the news media is mostly full of talk about how to get back to growth. While “denying the fact of systemic crisis.., our rulers are making a cataclysmic collapse more likely.”

Likewise with Peak Oil, the government prefers to believe BP that it is some way off, as Solar Century Chairman Jeremy Leggett pointed out last week at our Transition Forest Row Energy Fair in a debate with Energy Minister and our MP Charles Hendry.

We could easily make a very long list of how things are getting worse. So is all this an indication that we are losing, or as a number of signs at #Occupy events around the world hint at, and Shaun Chamberlin noted last week, they are an indication that “The beginning is near”?

It’s important that we engage with the story that we have about what is happening because the stories we tell ourselves can either be liberating or limiting. For example Burmese loggers know that an elephant never forgets. As soon as a baby elephant can walk, by securing it to a stake with a thin piece of rope, they can train it for life to believe that even a small string around its leg prevents it from wandering off. Likewise the placebo effect, which creates healing with inert drugs where our beliefs literally create our biology, is said to work in one third of treatments. This also operates in reverse; if ‘patients mistrust their doctor’s chosen course of action, the nocebo effect can cause a treatment to fail before it has begun’.

So it is important to imagine, to paraphrase Arundati Roy, that not only is another world possible, but that she is being born. However giving birth can be a messy and painful experience, but the result is a whole new being. If a mother did not know what was happening it would be a truly terrifying experience, and one more likely to end in tragedy. In The Transition Companion, Rob Hopkins points to David Holmgren’s model of future scenarios as Techno-explosion, green-tech stability, Earth stewardship and Atlantis (collapse). Hopkins sees the “first two as unfeasible and the last as avoidably pessimistic”. He sees the only viable course of action, and one taken by Transition, as an intentional powering down. It’s an approach I fully support, but it’s unlikley things will work out according to such a smooth plan. At least by having a plan, the timeline can always be shortened as circumstances demand, without a plan at all we are left to the mercy of other people’s plans.

Along with evolution, there is another change process in nature: mutation. Mutation implies a radical and rather sudden change, we could liken to a revolution in society. While the history of revolution is to say the least somewhat mixed, it is the instability of the existing order that provides the opportunity for change. Described as “one of the greatest childhood classics of all time”, most parents know the story of The Very Hungry Caterpillar. The caterpillar consumes and consumes until it undergoes a metamorphosis from ‘hungry caterpillar’ to ‘beautiful butterfly’.

“The genesis of the caterpillar’s transformation begins with the appearance of what scientists have termed ‘imaginal’ cells. Researchers have no idea where these cells come from, or why they appear. They are termed ‘imaginals’ because scientists can only hypothesize that their purpose is to ‘imagine’ something incredible that is about to happen. At first, the imaginals are fought off and destroyed by the intelligence of the caterpillar organism. But the imaginals keep coming back and eventually form clusters of cells to strengthen their domain. At a certain point in time, the long string of clumping and clustering imaginal cells switches gears from simply being a group of like-minded cells into the programming cells of the butterfly. They literally reach a critical mass of influence where the caterpillar’s destiny is altered to become a butterfly.”

So could it be that the signs of impending financial, energy and climatic chaos are not just the signs of collapse, but are signs of the unravelling of the industrial growth society? Is the emerging Occupy movement, Transition Initiatves and many others, actually clusters of imaginal cells emerging and organising into stronger groups? It has been suggested that this year will go down in history as one of those that redefined global politics like 1968 and 1989. Tariq Ali sees what is happening around the world as “the first signs – not of a unified movement, but of different movements in different countries that are searching for something. And that process of searching is extremely important. We’re in a period of transition” he said. Likewise in his 2004 Bioneers speech on ‘the other superpower’, Paul Hawkin described this movement as humanity’s immune response. “Rather than control, it seeks connection” he said.

With the 5 billion mobile phone connections and the internet, we are more connected globally than at any time in humanity’s history. In addition the idea of six degrees of separation is that anyone on the planet can be connected to any other person on the planet by a chain of no more than five acquaintances.

Participation shapes our world and is an incredible opportunity, especially now that there are 7 billion potentially creative beings on the planet. But this potential participation is also a responsibility for each one of us to recognise that we need to be participating in both our families, our communities, our regions and our family of the world.

In The Transition Companion, Rob explores ‘Why Transition Initiatives do what they do’. As well as the usual reasons such as Peak Oil, Climate change, even fear, is a section called ‘Because it feels like the most appropriate thing to do’. In it Rob says that “Transition is an invitation to be part of changing the place you live.” He goes on to ask “Do we make change happen by striving to shock or depress everyone into action, or by creating a thrilling, fascinating process that people can put their shoulders to if they wish?” As Paul Hawken said, “It is up to us to decide – how will we be, who will we be. This is what we are bulding – the capacity to respond. It is about possibilities and solutions. Humankind knows what to do.” Mike Grenville

How Does Change Happen? poem by Jennifer Corriero

Video link

This post also appeared here

http://www.transitionnetwork.org/stories/guest-editor/2011-11/navigating-change

Going Round in Circles

Mike Grenville — Mon, 18 Jul 2011 09:50:00 +0000

The nature of each Transition Conference venue both impacts the conference and seems to reflect the state of the movement. In Liverpool at Hope University for our fifth Conference it felt hard to make it into our own – the meeting space was strung along long corridors, with noisy acoustics, and overall a sense of being disconnected from the natural world. Even in the Chapel though the chairs were not fixed, we were made to keep them in the tight structure of forward facing rows.

Forming circles is intrinsic to our shift from the rigid structure of the expert at the front to one that embraces the knowledge in the whole group that the egalitarian structure of a circle provides. Just moving the arrangement of the chairs in a room becomes a piece of direct activism!

Fishbowl discussions was the group conversation format tried in a number of sessions at the conference that enables everyone to have an opportunity to join in the discussion. Everyone sits around the discussion that takes place in the centre with an empty chair for others to occupy and join in the circle.

Transition began as a 12 Step programme and is now being reborn as a collection of ingredients. There was a first opportunity to play with Rob Hopkins cards as a way of using the Ingredients of Transition to tell the story of how Transition plays out in different communities and situations. It seemed to help people who played it see where the gaps were and also what they had achieved.

Many thoughts were gathered and re seeded from the many conversations that took place over the weekend

A tale is also rather like a circle, or at least a spiral that takes you on a journey to see where you are in a new way and bring you back in time for tea. Tales that were woven so seamlessly through out the conference by the storytellers.

In closing the conference we forced a circle into the space to sing a few notes of farewell, with a picture of the diverse people in Liverpool smiling down at us.

For myself, much of the conference was spent going from room to room to catch a flavour of what was going on everywhere through taking photos. As the few short intense days recede into the past I’m already looking forward to when the circle brings us round to meet once again.

Big Climate Connection

Mike Grenville — Fri, 10 Jun 2011 09:43:56 +0000

Text of my talk at Big Climate Connection in Uckfield on 20th May 2011.

Speakers:

Charles Hendry MP
Darren Shirley: Sustainable Homes Campaign Manager, WWF UK
Mike Grenville, Transition Network and local activist
John Lanchbery, Head of International Climate Change Policy, RSPB
Dr Sarah Wykes, CAFOD

For more info on the Big Climate Connection visit www.thebigconnection.org

We face a series of dire problems with our relationship to energy.

Climate change and peak oil are not two separate issues: one is the connected to the other. They interact with each other in ways that are difficult to predict. These problems can not be solved in isolation. By concentrating on one we may worsen others.

The days of easy oil are over. Even the IEA say Peak Oil, the point of maximum global production has already happened. Petrol prices are no longer cheap. Yet governments and the petroleum industry are in denial

If we continue with the fantasy that we can keep going with business as usual, as the reality of Peak Oil grows, it will usher in a whole new wave of fixes even worse than oil that are lined up to replace it:
- coal to liquids,
- tar sands extraction,
- bio-fuels,

Peak Oil puts a mirror up to a community:
• where is the resilience?
• How quickly did we find ourselves fighting over bread and milk when the snow interrupted deliveries?
• How much more do petrol prices need to rise before you can’t afford to drive to work?

The government favours centralised energy supply.

Nuclear for example; the impact on many future generations is ignored for a few decades of electricity. Even before the Fukushima crisis, nuclear energy was not competitive in free market economies without significant government support.

Just this week the Energy and Climate Change Committee said that hidden subsidies to nuclear will be awarded through long-term government-supported contracts to supply energy.

Our neighbour Germany is showing that it is very possible to get large penetrations of renewable energy
while phasing out nuclear energy by 2020. Given the political will, it can be done.

In Lewes, OVESCO – an Off shoot of Transition Lewes
Is putting 545 solar PV panels on the roof of Harvey’s Brewery. 200 local people have invested earning them 4% interest : 50 people invested £250 100 between £250-1000 and 50 – £1000+

More importantly they mainly see it as
• playing their part in making carbon reduction happen;
• and investing in the future of their children.

With £258,000 already invested They need just £50,000 to complete the order For it to be working by end of July
before the Govt reduces the FIT rate from 32.9p/kwh -> 19p/kwh.

In Forest Row, Transition is working with the Farm Coop
On a 50kwh project, half the size of the Lewes project,
a limit that is also up for government review next spring.

Another way that can help makes such schemes viable
Is the Enterprise Investment Scheme. It gives a 20% off set against tax to investments. Next year this will increase to 30% but will be removed for renewable energy.

Uncertainty is the problem for the supply chain. Community groups run by volunteers and low paid staff need time to get going.

The government needs to find ways to make it viable
for the community to be involved with local renewable energy
• It reduces carbon,
• boosts local jobs,
• and builds resilience

We need to face the facts: We cannot go on pretending
that there are multiple planets to plunder. No one it seems wants to face up to a connection between oil at $147/barrel and the economic collapse of 2008. The Government’s strategy to escape recession is growth which will not work in the face of rising triple digit oil prices.

In an analysis of our energy future, Shell saw 2 options:

Blueprint: a planned transition to a low carbon society

Scramble: where we carry on regardless and fight each other for the last rays of ancient sunlight – fossil fuels. Sadly, for the most part, this is the option by default we are taking.

We can live without oil; our ancestors lived without it
for thousands of years.

We are all in Transition to a low carbon future although not all of us realise it yet. The Transition Movement is a community response to the challenges we face. It intends to unleash the creative genius of the local community to design their own pathways through energy descent, looking at all our key systems - food, energy, economics, transport, health etc. And they are doing it in ways that are practical, playful, cooperative, engaging and mindful of the wider questions of biodiversity, social justice and economic equity.

We recognise that it is a huge social experiment. What we are convinced of is that If we wait for governments, it’ll be too little, too late if we act as individuals, it’ll be too little, but if we act as communities, it might just be enough, just in time.

It is time to ignore the gods of economic growth who destroy the planet in our name. It is time to be concerned about real wealth:

• local food from healthy soils;
• localised renewable energy
• and initiatives that enhance community resilience.

The key is real government support to empower communities.

Community-owned Solar Powers Brewery

Mike Grenville — Sat, 07 May 2011 09:03:17 +0000

A project to put solar panels on the roof of Harvey’s brewery in Lewes is tantalisingly close with only about £20,000 still to be raised to be able to place the order.

The Harvey’s array on the beer chill roof will be one of Britain’s first community-owned solar power stations. Guaranteed for 25 years, there is no reason why the panels assembled in Wales should not go on producing electricity for 50 years.

Ovesco (Ouse Valley Energy Services Company), an offshoot of Transition Lewes, launched the Harvey’s Roof scheme on Tuesday April 19th at Lewes Town Hall, offering a share issue for the capital cost of £307,000.

There is an important time constraint due to the Government’s recent decision to reduce the top rate feed-in tariff from 100kW to 50kW on August 1st 2011. All the money must be raised by early May in order to be sure of beating this deadline.

To be able to place an order with the installer by 9th May, Ovesco need to raise 80% of the share issue, and as of Friday 6th May there was only £20k left to raise. Additional potential investors then have until the 27th May to supply the last 20% of funds the projects needs for completion. If OVESCO goes over the £307,000 they will ask investors if they want their shares to be used for further projects.

OVESCO Limited has received planning permission for the installation on Harvey’s roof of 544 photovoltaic (PV) panels that will generate 92,000 kilowatt hours of green electricity each year – enough to save more than 40 tonnes of CO2 annually.

The launch evening began with £170k already pledged. This has now grown to £223k invested with a further £48k pledged leaving only about £30,000 to raise the full amount. Anyone in the UK can invest in this scheme. Investing in the scheme is a mixture of community and personal benefit. Interest will be paid via the new solar PV feed-in tariffs, which are guaranteed by the government for 25 years. Money invested will be repaid in full at the end of the 25 year scheme, or earlier at the request of the investor and subject to conditions. While the investment is held a dividend will be paid after the first year which is expected to be 4% if the full amount can be raised from investors; if they have to take out a commercial loan the return will be lower.

Speaking at the share launch, Norman Baker, MP for Lewes and Transport Minister said that “energy should be bottom up not top down”. He also emphasised the importance of retro-fitting homes with energy efficiency which would reduce the need for electricity generation. Baker said, “with issues of energy security, Peak Oil and gas coming from unstable regimes, even those who aren’t green can see the point in developing renewables in the short term.” Dismissing nuclear power as “unable to be developed without substantial subsidy”, Baker said that currently “the amount of renewables in this country is pathetic.”

Huw Irranca-Davies, MP for Gower and Shadow Energy Minister agreed adding that nuclear provides energy for frothy uses, noting how everything in Tokyo is lit with neon but after Fukushima the city went dark. “Fukushima has helped us take a proper view of the total cost of nuclear” he said. However he went on to say that while one incident should not determine policy, in his view the most dangerous energy is coal. He said that renewables are critical to energy security and that in the UK we have the best opportunity in the world with wind, wave and tidal, but the financial mechanisms to take advantage are not there. “What we see here tonight is a model to go round the country” he said.

Another speaker at the launch, Sara Parkin from Forum for the Future said that we needed to move away from nuclear, coal and also big wind. “The battle is between big and small energy” she said. To reduce the transmission waste “we need to get the generation sources near to where we are – and the answer to that is small scale renewables”. However “there is no silver bullet” said Parkin, but “every little helps and adds up to a lot”.

Once Ovesco has got this scheme going it is looking at other places for local energy generation including Lewes Football club.

There is still time to invest this weekend – contact Ovesco

http://ovesco.co.uk/

Rob Hopkins has written a ‘Transition Ingredient’ about “Investing in Transition” which covers the many ways Transition Initiatives can invest in their local communities

Winter Solstice & Full Moon on Tuesday 21 December 2010

Mike Grenville — Sun, 19 Dec 2010 23:24:36 +0000

It appears that the Solstice on 21st December is a candidate for mayan calendar ending. Maharishi Mahesh Yogi said many years ago that the Mayans got the date a bit wrong, though it is not known what he said was the right date. However, in 1968 Maharishi said that “everything for the Age of Enlightenment will be in place by 2011″ which would mean by the end of December 2010.

On this date the planets are lined up and points to centre of the galaxy. The benefics and malefics are both in powerful condition, however because of their position, the benefics are able to over see the change and point it in a positive direction.

If this is the end of 26,000 year cycle, where the first 13,000 years were ruled by the devas and the second by rakshas, we are coming to the end of that whole period. As a result we could see the malefics doing their things vigorously in a final act (for example as we are seeing in Mexico of drug barons wiping each other out).

In Jyotish, Vedic Astrology, the moon equals the mind so an eclipse of moon is an eclipse of the mind. One might get unusual ideas suddenly at that time and one can jump to wrong conclusions easily so take special care in not making big decisions. This indicates that it is best to be inward at that time, such as meditating.

This will be the first total lunar eclipse to occur on the day of the Winter Solstice (in the Northern Hemisphere; Summer in the Southern) since 1638 (according to Wikipedia).

Northern Hemisphere Winter Solstice at 23:39 UTC
Full ( Oak ) Moon at 08:13

The beginning of the total eclipse will be visible from northern Europe just before sunrise.
Time to observe for most of time zone: 05:29am — 08:53am (GMT)
Penumbral begins: 5:29
Partial eclipse begins: 6:33
Total eclipse begins: 7:41
Greatest eclipse: 8:17
Total Eclipse ends: 8:53
Partial eclipse ends: 10:01
Penumbral ends: 11:05
See this page for illustrations of the phases

http://www.spacedex.com/lunar-eclipse/locations/lunar-europe-uk.php

The full Moon, and its total eclipse on this longest night of the year is timed perfectly to give us all a quiet time when the world sleeps, and to synchronize countless people’s efforts to harmonize with each other as this video suggests we do:

Is It Time For A New Calendar?

Mike Grenville — Thu, 22 Jul 2010 21:43:16 +0000

Since 1582 the standard world calendar has been the 12-month Gregorian calendar, in which the months have an unequal number of days (28,29,30, and 31) and do not correspond to any cycle of nature. It does not reflect or teach us about the natural rhythms of our journey around the Sun – nor does it help us with our relationship to our orbiting moon

The word ‘Calends’ comes from Roman words meaning an account book, referring to monthly debts to be paid. The Gregorian calendar obtains its names mostly from gods (March from Roman Mars) or leaders of empires (July and August from the first Cæsars), or ordinals that got out of synchronisation (September through December, originally seventh through tenth, now ninth through twelfth ).

There are those who propose that we should move to a 13 month count:

13 moons x 28 days = 364 + one day out of time = 365 days.

The extra day is called “the day out of time”, which is the Mayan New Year’s Day and it corresponds to our 25th July.

The Mayan calendar integrates many “twin” aspects, like Sun and Moon which represent male and female. Its concepts are based on moon, tides and human biorhythms, similar to female cycles. As well as Mayans, Druids, Incans, ancient Egyptians and Polynesians also used a 13 month count.

In 1933 there was a proposal to the League of Nations that was going to switch to a 13 month calendar but the proposal was vetoed by the USA following objection from representatives of the Catholic Church saying that it would anger God and cause “chaos, barbarism, and war.”

At the root of the world’s imbalance is humanity’s alienation from nature. This alienation is emphasised by our use of the artificial man-made frequency of time called the “12:60″. We could even say that the motto of the 12:60 paradigm is “time is money.”

Perhaps if we were to start using a nature-based rhythm 13 month measure of days it would help us to reconnect us to the wisdom of our ancestors as well as increase our harmony with the planet and galaxy we live in.

One proposal is that we should move to a 13 month count:

13 moons x 28 days = 364 + one day out of time = 365 days.

The extra day is called “the day out of time”, which is the Mayan New Year’s Day and it corresponds to our 25th July.

Sources:

http://www.13moon.com

Calendar reform from Wikipedia

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calendar_reform

The Divine Redemption Scenario

Mike Grenville — Sun, 06 Sep 2009 20:59:53 +0000

Of the four scenarios described by David Holmgren in his book ‘Future Scenarios’: techno-explosion, techno-stability, energy descent and collapse, only energy descent offers a hope for successful transiton while others are the illusion that many carry as an excuse for carry on as normal. To these scenarios I see that there is another one that is prevalent and acts as a justification for carrying on a carbon intensive, jet setting consumer lifestyle that I call Divine Redemption.

A number of different groups use Divine Redemption as a reason for carrying on with life as normal. They believe that because they are focused on a spiritual path and that a transformation of consciousness is what is going to save us, they don’t need to make personal changes themselves.

Into this group go all kinds of meditators, (and I speak as someone who has meditated twice daily for 40 years) and spiritual seekers, 2012ers, fundamentalist Christians who believe in the Rapture (Jesus will come on clouds and the chosen ones will be lifted up into the sky), some Shia Muslims (including President Ahmadinjead of Iran) who also believe in an imminent second coming of the Prophet that will sort everything out.

There are a growing number for whom 2012 has become an obsession and a justification for just carrying on as before. For me I do have a strong sense that a transformation of consciousness is actually happening and that is what many 2012 predictions are about. There is a global awakening happening on all sorts of levels, something Paul Hawken spotted and has called ‘the other superpower’.

The issue we might have is not with any particular spiritual belief itself, but with the thinking that follows that there no need to do anything because the angels or the Divine will sort it out. There is an Arabic saying ‘trust in God and tie up your camel’.

For me Joanna Macy’s three actions sums up what we need to do: resist destruction (direct action), build new ways of living (transition initiatives), transform consciousness (inner transition). None of them on their own are enough and we need to engage on all levels.

What clicked for me some years ago was that whatever angle you looked it was becoming clear that we were heading to a big crunch. Whether one looked at economics in the Financial Times, energy constraints on Energy Bulletin, Climate Chaos, water, food production, etc etc or from a spiritual angle; they all seemed to be predicting a crunch of issues around about the same date. I found that a pretty compelling reason to get out there and do more!

For me a little knowledge of 2012 ideas is just an added motivation to do more for Transition Initiatives, not an excuse to leave it all up to cosmic forces.

As the joke goes – ‘Jesus is coming. Look busy.’